China Has Made Drone Warfare Global
Foreign Affairs
with Michael C. Horowitz & Matthew Fuhrmann
November 20, 2020
We explain that the proliferation of armed drones around the world has largely been driven by China and that drone export restrictions under the Missile Technology Control Regime have unintentionally given non-democracies an advantage over democracies when it comes to acquiring this technology.
Tonight Kamala Harris May Need to Prove She is Tough
to Beat Gender Stereotypes. That Affects Foreign Policy
Washington Post: The Monkey Cage
with Christopher W. Blair
October 7, 2020
Although many scholars and policymakers believe female leaders are inherently more peaceful than male leaders due to evolutionary biology and socialization pressures, we present evidence that female executives actually have incentives to adopt relatively hawkish foreign policies during international crises in order to prove their toughness. Specifically, female leaders are punished more for backing down from threats made against a foreign adversaries than male leaders (inconsistency), and are punished less for making threats in the first place (belligerence).
The US Doesn’t Need a New New START
Defense One
with Christopher W. Blair
February 14, 2020
We argue that the weaknesses associated with the INF Treaty do not apply to New START, and thus the US should agree to an extension with Russia. Specifically, Russia is not violating New START and China’s nuclear stockpile remains far below the limits outlined in New START.
Dragon Power is Awesome. But it Can’t Tell You How to Rule.
Washington Post: The Monkey Cage
April 29, 2019
Dragons may appear to be all-powerful in Game of Thrones, but is that the lesson that series creator, George RR Martin, wants the audience to take away? On the contrary, I argue that Martin uses dragons to illustrate the limits of military power.
Trump Issued an Executive Order to Prepare for an
EMP Attack. What is it, and Should You Worry?
Washington Post: The Monkey Cage
with Christopher W. Blair, Casey Mahoney, & Shira E. Pindyck
March 29, 2019
Although electromagnetic pulse weapons are portrayed as an existential threat in movies like Goldeneye and by some foreign policy experts, we argue that the prospect of nuclear retaliation can effectively deter such attacks.
What the Impending Death of the INF Teaches
about Future Arms Control Agreements
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
with Christopher W. Blair
December 6, 2018
How can future arms control agreements be designed to avoid the fate of the INF? We argue that if future agreements (1) limit rather than ban weapons systems; (2) focus on nuclear rather than conventional weapons; (3) are multilateral rather than bilateral; (4) have indefinite rather than temporary verification procedures; and (5) build in mechanisms to update the agreement, then they will be more likely to endure.
The US Negotiating Strategy with North Korea is Doomed
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
August 30, 2018
Will North Korea bend to the Trump Administration’s will and agree to give up all of their nuclear weapons? I argue that due to commitment problems on the part of the US, North Korea won’t be completely denuclearizing anytime soon. Many leaders/countries that have given up nuclear weapons programs have not done well, as Muammar Gaddafi and Saddam Hussein were deposed from power by US interventions and killed; Ukraine had Crimea annexed by the Russians; and Iran had tough sanctions re-imposed on them by the US despite their compliance with the JCPOA. Consequently, a more realistic strategy would be for the US to seek a smaller-scale deal that puts significant restrictions on North Korea’s nuclear program in return for moderate sanctions relief and other limited concessions.
A New US Policy Makes it (somewhat) Easier to Export Drones
Washington Post: The Monkey Cage
with Michael C. Horowitz
April 20, 2018
Why did the Trump Administration decide to reduce export restrictions on drones? We argue it is because (1) current efforts to prevent armed drone proliferation are not working; (2) current export restrictions put American allies at a comparative disadvantage; (3) existing restrictions give China a strategic advantage; and (4) existing export constraints are costing the US drone industry.
