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Studying the Edge of the State Space: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach to Forecasting Rare Events
Miguel Garces, Matthew Reichert, Ian S. Lustick In this paper, we begin with a thought exercise to generate a definition of rare events that captures those events that pose the ‘rare events problem,’ and introduce the concept of a ‘state space’ as (More)
Unpacking the Error Term: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach for Locating Causality in War Onsets
Matthew Reichert, Miguel Garces, Ian S. Lustick This poster was presented at the American Political Science Association Annual Meeting on August 29th, 2014 in Washington, D.C. We attempt to build a multi-level agent-based model that combines micro- (More)
Making sense of Social Radar: V-SAFT as an intelligent machine
Ian S. Lustick “Social radar” is a metaphor: in other words, a model. A model projects something known about a “source” onto something less well known—a target. We see the moon (the target) differently when we hear the metaphor: “The moon is a ghost (More)
Modeling Endogeneity in Civil War: An Agent-Based Approach
Matthew Reichert, Miguel Garces, Ian S. Lustick This paper was presented at the 2015 Annual Meeting for the International Studies Association in New Orleans, LA. A significant theoretical innovation in the civil war literature has been the recognit (More)
Fragility and Destabilizing Protest: Combining Event and Structural Data for Improved Forecasts
Miguel Garces, Ian S. Lustick, Brian P. Levey This paper was presented at the 2015 Advances in Cross-Cultural Decision Making Conference in Las Vegas, NV. Social science-based efforts to achieve success forecasting events of interest, including dom (More)
Approaching ABM Virtualizations as Complex Games
Ian Lustick, Miguel Garces, Thomas McCauley, Patrick O’Mahen Holland (2000) highlights how the study of board games can yield profound but underexploited insights into complex social phenomena. We build on this insight, treating games as small compl (More)
Agent-Based Simulations as a Modeling Solution for Understanding Use of Improvised Explosive Devices in Insurgencies and Rebellions
Ian Lustick, Patrick O’Mahen, Miguel Garces, Thomas McCauley During military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) became the single most deadly weapon used by insurgents against the U.S. military and allies. In res (More)
Making Sense of Syraq
Miguel Garces, Thomas McCauley, Ian Lustick This document is meant to be a primer on Lustick Consulting’s model of Syria & Iraq (we call it “Syraq” for short). It is a spatio-temporal network model of both countries, designed to help explain and for (More)
Methods in the Madness: Modeling Tactics of Violence in Insurgencies and Rebellions
Miguel Garces, Ian Lustick, Thomas McCauley, Patrick O’Mahen This paper was presented at the 2016 International Studies Association Annual Convention in Atlanta, GA. What role do different forms of violence play in shaping insurgencies and counteri (More)
V-SAFT Verification & Validation Report
The key to Lustick Consulting’s Verification & Validation (V&V) process is iterative analysis of model inputs, theory, outputs, and empirical indicators. V&V should not be a static, one-time event, but rather an ongoing process of hypothesizing, test (More)
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