This paper describes the process and outcomes of using an agent-based model of Syria to forecast the counterfactual effect of different “treatment conditions” on the likelihood of civilian casualties in Syria between 2011 and 2014. Treatment conditions included unified western support for the Free Syrian Army, US retaliation against Assad after crossing the “red line” in 2013, the development of a democratizing bubble that is allowed to grow in an inclusive way, weakened jihadization of the conflict, and no intervention by Iran.

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