Research Highlights

Latest Studies:

2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Prediction
Dr. Michael E. Mann and Shannon Christiansen at the University of Pennsylvania and Penn State ESSC alumnus Dr. Michael Kozar have released their seasonal prediction for the 2023 North Atlantic hurricane season. The prediction is for another above-normal season.

Read the prediction write-up >>

Another Year of Record Heat for the Oceans
Lijing Cheng, and numerous collaborators including Dr. Michael E Mann, have once again extended previous research to conclude that the world’s oceans were a record warm in 2022, despite the presence of La Niña conditions, for another consecutive year.

>>Read the study (Journal Web Version)
>>Read the study (PDF version)
>>Read the Press Release

Past and Future Ocean Warming
Lijing Cheng and collaborators, including Dr. Michael E. Mann, outline the drivers and consequences of past and future ocean warming though monitoring ocean measurements and analyzing model simulations.

>>Read the study (Web version on journal site)
>>Read the study (PDF version)
>>Read the Chinese Academy of Sciences press release

Irreversible declines in freshwater storage projected in parts of Asia by 2060
Dr. Michael E. Mann and collaborators have found that climate change threatens terrestrial freshwater storage over the Tibetan plateau.

Read the study (Web version on journal Web site) >>
Read the study (PDF version) >>
Read the research briefing (Web version on journal Web site) >>
Read the Penn State press release >>

2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season outlook released
ESSC scientists Michael E. Mann and Daniel J. Brouillette and ESSC alumnus Michael Kozar have released their seasonal prediction for the 2022 North Atlantic hurricane season. The prediction is for another above-normal season.

Read the prediction write-up >>

Study shows that ITCZ responses to external forcing are region-specific
Byron Steinman, and collaborators including Dr. Mann, analyzed paleoclimate records of precipitation change in the neotropics and climate model simulations that span the preindustrial last millennium to assess ITCZ behavior on multicentury timescales. They demonstrate that the ITCZ shifted southward during the Little Ice Age in the Atlantic basin in response to relative cooling of the Northern Hemisphere driven by volcanic forcing, which contrasts with studies suggesting that changes in ITCZ width and/or strength, rather than a change in mean position, occurred during the Little Ice Age.

Read the study (Web version on the journal Web site) >>
Read the study (printable version on the Mann Web site) >>
Access supplementary materials for this study >>
Read the UMD press release about the study >>

Another record: Ocean warming continues through 2021 despite La Niña conditions
Lijing Cheng, and numerous collaborators including Dr. Michael E. Mann, have extended previous research to conclude that the world’s oceans were again record warm in 2021, for the sixth consecutive year, despite the presence of La Niña conditions.

Read the study (Web version on the journal Web site) >>
Read the study (printable version on the Mann Web site) >>
Read a press release from SciTechDaily >>
View a supplementary video produced by the authors>>

Read news coverage of the study:
Washington Post>>
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Axios>>
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ScienceAlert>>
CTV News (Canada)>>
Le Monde>>

Heat stress in U.S. may double by the end of the century
Dr. Michael E. Mann and collaborators Sourav Mukherjee (lead author), Ashok Kumar Mishra, and Colin Raymond published a study that shows that areas of the United States with increasing populations will likely experience even higher increases in heat stress.

Read the study >>
Read the AGU press release >>
Read more from NSF >>

Apparent Atlantic warming cycle likely an artifact of climate forcing
ESSC scientists Dr. Michael E. Mann and Daniel J. Brouillette and alumni scientists Dr. Byron Steinman and Sonya Miller have published a study that further confirms that the so-called Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation is indistinguishable from the background noise of internal climate variability and is an artifact of climate forcing and that additionally finds that it tracks closely with volcanic forcing over the past millennium.