University of Pennsylvania EES scientists Dr. Michael E. Mann and Shannon A. Christiansen, and Penn State ESSC alumnus Dr. Michael Kozar have released their seasonal prediction for the 2025 North Atlantic hurricane season, which officially starts on 1 June and runs through 30 November.
The prediction is for 13.9 +/- 3.7 total named tropical cyclones, which corresponds to a range between 10 and 18 storms, with a best estimate of 14 named storms. This prediction was made using the statistical model of Kozar et al. (2012, see PDF here). This statistical model builds upon the past work of Sabbatelli and Mann (2007, see PDF here) by considering a larger number of climate predictors and including corrections for the historical undercount of events (see footnotes).
The assumptions behind this forecast are (a) the persistence of current North Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (+0.66°C in late April 2025 from NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch) throughout the 2025 hurricane season, (b) presence of neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions in the equatorial Pacific in late Boreal summer and fall 2025 (ENSO forecasts here; we used mid-April 2025), and (c) climatological mean conditions for the North Atlantic Oscillation in Fall/Winter 2024-2025.
If mild La Nina conditions take shape later in 2025, then the prediction will be slightly higher: 15.1 +/- 3.9 storms (range of 11 – 19 storms, with a best guess of 15).
Using an alternative model that uses “relative” MDR SST (MDR SST with the average tropical mean SST subtracted) in place of MDR SST yields a lower prediction (9.7 +/- 3.1 total named storms). This alternative model also includes neutral ENSO conditions.
Previous Forecasts:
| Year | Prediction | Best Guess | Range | Actual Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 33.1+/-5.8 | 33 | 27-39 | 18 |
| 2023 | 15.9+/-4.0 | 16 | 12-20 | 20 |
| 2022 | 14.9 +/- 3.8 | 15 | 11-19 | 14 |
| 2021 | 11.9 +/- 3.4 | 12 | 9-15 | 21 |
| 2020 | 19.8 +/- 4.4 | 20 | 15-24 | 30 |
| 2019 | 10.1 +/- 3.2 | 10 | 7-13 | 18 |
| 2018 | 10.2 +/- 3.2 | 10 | 7-13 | 15 |
| 2017 | 15.3 +/- 3.9 | 15 | 11-20 | 17 |
| 2016 | 18.9 +/- 4.4 | 19 | 14-24 | 15 |
| 2015 | 6.9 +/- 2.6 | 7 | 4-10 | 11 |
| 2014 | 9.3 +/- 3.0 | 9 | 6-12 | 8 |
| 2013 | 16.0 +/- 4.0 | 16 | 12-20 | 14 |
| 2012 | 11.2 +/- 3.3 | 11 | 8-15 | 19 |
| 2011 | 16.25 +/- 4.0 | 16 | 12-20 | 19 |
| 2010 | 23.4 +/- 4.8 | 23 | 19-28 | 19 |
| 2009 | 11.5 +/- 3.4 | 12 | 8-15 (6-13 if El Niño) | 9 |
| 2007 | n/a | 15 | n/a | 15 |
References:
Kozar, M.E., Mann, M.E., Camargo, S.J., Kossin, J.P., Evans, J.L., 2012: Stratified statistical models of North Atlantic basin-wide and regional tropical cyclone counts, J. Geophys. Res., 117, D18103, doi:10.1029/2011JD017170.
Mann, M.E., Sabbatelli, T.A., Neu, U., 2007: Evidence for a Modest Undercount Bias in Early Historical Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Counts, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L22707, doi:10.1029/2007GL031781.
Sabbatelli, T.A., Mann, M.E., 2007: The Influence of Climate State Variables on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Occurrence Rates, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D17114, doi: 10.1029/2007JD008385.
Vecchi, G.A., Knutson, T.R., 2008: On Estimates of Historical North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity, J.Climate, 21, 3580-3600, doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2178.
Footnotes:
The tropical cyclone series was corrected based on an estimated historical undercount taken from Vecchi and Knutson (2008).
Prediction made: April 23, 2025
This webpage last updated: April 29, 2025