Current/Ongoing Projects

• “Forecasting Civil Wars: Theory and Data in an Era of ‘Big Data’ and Machine Learning.” (with Robert Blair). Online Appendix. April 2018
• “Outside Options: The Effect of External Intervention on Inclusion and Autonomy after Civil War” (with Nils-Christian Bormann and Mark Toukan). June 2018
• “Field Experiments on Cultural Threat: Evidence from Greece” (with Danny Choi and Mathias Poertner). Research Proposal, July 2018.
• “Political Exclusion, Lost Autonomy, and Non-Violent Separatism” (with Micha Germann). July 2018. Paper prepared for the 2018 Annual Convention of the American Political Science Association.
• “The Occupier’s Dilemma: Foreign-Imposed Nation-Building after Ethnic War” (with Kevin Russell). Online Appendix. October 2018. Revise and Resubmit, International Organization.
• “Measuring the Effects of Economic Austerity on Pro-Sociality: Evidence from Greece” (with Anna Schultz and Elena Nikolova). November 2018.
• “Parochialism, Social Norms, and Discrimination toward Immigrants” (with Donghyun Danny Choi and Matthias Poertner). Supplementary Material. November 2018.
• “External Intervention, Polarization, and Civil War” (with Stergios Skaperdas and William Wohlforth). October 2018. Under review.
• “Status-Seeking and Nation-Building: The ‘Piedmont Principle’ Revisited” (with Simone Paci and William Wohforth). Revise and Resubmit, Journal of Interdisciplinary History. October 2018.
• “What Is the Mechanism Underlying Audience Costs: Reputation, Belligerence, and Leader Competence” (with William Nomikos). September 2018. Revise and Resubmit, Journal of Peace Research.
• “Violence Exposure and Identity Formation: Evidence from Cyprus” (with Anna Schultz). July 2018. Paper prepared for the 2018 Annual Convention of the American Political Science Association.
• Older projects/paused:
• “Passing and Policing: A Model of Identity Change with Endogenous Leadership.” June 2011.
• “Spillover Effects and Civil Conflict.” January 2009.
• “What is an ‘Ethnic’ War? Organization and Interests in Insurgency.” September 2007.
• Secessionism: The Demand for Sovereignty. (Book manuscript accepted for publication by Cambridge University Press, Cambridge Studies in Comparative Politics; currently under final revision). Preview the introductory chapter.

Recent Posts