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Syria Atrocities Modeling Report for Phase I
The overall purpose of this pilot project is to explore the contribution that agent-based modeling can make to understanding, anticipating, and thinking counterfactually about mass atrocity events. Phase I of this project proposed to devise model ope (More)
An Agent-Based Model of Counterfactual Opportunities for Reducing Atrocities in Syria, 2011-2014
This paper describes the process and outcomes of using an agent-based model of Syria to forecast the counterfactual effect of different "treatment conditions" on the likelihood of civilian casualties in Syria between 2011 and 2014. Treatment conditio (More)
Nesting a Data-driven Agent-based Model within a Theoretical Framework
Miguel Garces, Brandon Alcorn Traditionally agent-based modeling has been a field that focuses largely on abstract models that offer insights into real world phenomena, but rarely with enough complexity to play a major role within academic or policy (More)
Deploying Constructivism for the Analysis of Rare Events: How Possible is the Emergence of "Punjabistan"?
Ian S. Lustick; Edited volume by Kanchan Chandra The purpose of this volume is to demonstrate that a rigorous conceptual framework can enable constructivist insights to be deployed for the solution of a variety of theoretical and empirical problem (More)
Validating and Verifying Validation and Verification: The Methodological Challenge of a Public Policy Imperative
Ian S. Lustick   Verification and Validation are legally required evaluations that the Defense Department must make of any system, model, or simulation it deploys. With extensive experience and detailed protocols for verifying and validating (More)
Granular ABM Simulations for Operational Use: Forecasting and What-if Experiments with Models of Kandahar and Kunduz
Brandon Alcorn, Miguel Garces, Ian S. Lustick In this paper we report and discuss results of an effort to adapt country-level modeling techniques developed in DARPA’s Integrated Crisis Early Warning System (ICEWS) program to produce forecasts and (More)
Verification as a Form of Validation: Deepening Theory to Broaden Application of DOD Protocols to the Social Sciences
Ian S. Lustick, Matthew R. Tubin The original DOD objective which the process of Verification, Validation, and Accreditation exists to serve was to evaluate the credibility of models and simulations. The red-line between verification (following th (More)
Using Empirical Data to Test Theoretically Grounded Operationalizations of Protest in an Agent-Based Model
Brandon Alcorn, Miguel Garces, Ian S. Lustick In this paper we will report on an attempt at Validation & Verification of our agent-based country models using empirical "medium hostility" data from the W-ICEWS program. We will investigate how w (More)
From Theory to Simulation: The Dynamic Political Hierarchy in Country Virtualization Models
<![CDATA[ Ian Lustick, Brandon Alcorn, Miguel Garces, Alicia Ruvinsky This paper suggests that computer-assisted agent-based modeling has the ability to move beyond abstract representations of political problems to theoretically sound virtualiza (More)
VirThai: A PS-I Implemented Agent-Based Model of Thailand as a Predictive and Analytic Tool
Brandon Alcorn, Miguel Garces, Allen Hicken In this paper we report on the deployment of “VirThai,” a virtualization type agent-based model of contemporary Thailand, to produce predictions for events of political and policy interest over the cours (More)
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