Forensic science:

Forensic statistics:

• The prosecutor’s fallacy in the real world: A modern take using likelihood ratios (in progress)
• Understanding the problem with inconclusives in validity studies (in progress)
• How often are fingerprints repeated in the population? Expanding on evidence from AI with the birthday paradox (under review)
• The overlooked risks of non-validated exclusions (under review)
• Incorrect statistical reasoning in Guyll et al. leads to biased claims about strength of forensic evidence (PNAS)
• Misuse of statistical method results in highly biased interpretation of forensic evidence in Guyll et al. (2023) (Law, Probability and Risk)
• Reliability and validity of forensic science evidence (Significance)
• What does a match mean? A framework for understanding forensic comparisons (Significance)
• Association does not imply discrimination: Flawed analyses that lead to wrongful convictions (CRC Handbooks of Modern Statistical Methods)

Review of current forensic methods:

• Facial recognition use by law enforcement: accuracy and fairness (in progress)
• Review of fingerprint black box studies (in progress)
• Statistical problems in the diagnosis of Shaken Baby Syndrome/Abusive Head Trauma: Limitations to algorithms and the need for reliable data (under review)
• Methodological problems in every black-box study of forensic firearm comparisons (Law, Probability and Risk)
• A probabilistic formulation of contextual bias in forensic analysis (JRSS-A)
• Human and machine similarity judgments in forensic firearm comparisons (FSI Synergy)
• Public beliefs about the accuracy and importance of forensic evidence in the United States (Science & Justice)
• Implementation of a blind quality control program in blood alcohol analysis (Journal of Analytical Toxicology)

Development of new methods in forensic science:

• A dataset of 3D toolmarks for applications in forensic statistics (in progress)
• Forensic toolmark identification using mixed models  (in progress)
• An algorithm for forensic toolmark identification (FSI Synergy)
• Implementing blind proficiency testing in forensic laboratories: Motivation, obstacles, and recommendations (FSI Synergy)

Causal inference:

• Mediation analysis for the probability of causation (revise and resubmit)
• Discussion of ‘Experimental evaluation of algorithm-assisted human decision-making: Application to pretrial public safety assessment’ (JRSS-A)
• A nonparametric estimator for the probability of causation (JRSS-A) (Prob. causation application)
• Causal reasoning and data analysis: Problems with the abusive head trauma diagnosis (Law, Probability and Risk)
• Short fall arguments in court: A probabilistic analysis (University of Michigan Journal of Law Reform)
• Causes of effects and effects of causes (Chapter in Statistics in the Public Interest, in memory of Stephen E. Fienberg)

Public health and criminal justice:

• The Causal Effect of Covid-19 Lockdowns on Crime in Bogota, Colombia (in progress)
• Overdose awareness and reversal trainings at Philadelphia public libraries (American Journal of Health Promotion)
• Measuring marginal crime concentration: A new solution to an old problem (Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency)
• Trends in underreporting of marijuana consumption in the United States (Statistics and Public Policy)

Note: I did not include the names of my co-authors here. To see the full author list, click the link to each citation.