Speaker: Julian Gould

Title: Mortality Mathematics

Abstract: Internal Revenue Service Table 2000CM is a statistical triumph. Table 2000CM uses the enormous dataset collected in the 2000 US census to answer a single morbid question: given a population of 100,000 Americans born at the same time, how many do we expect to die each year? Unfortunately, the answer is pretty grim. After an initial spike for infant mortality, the year-by-year chance of dying grows exponentially, approximately doubling every eight years. Aging is central to mortality risk. In this talk, we will contemplate our own mortality and examine Table 2000CM. We will use 2000CM to shed light on various models of aging, why the body is not like a car, and why we should be skeptical of treating illness as a mechanism for increasing human longevity. Despite the macabre content, I promise we will end on a happy note 🙂