Welcome to the home page for Dr. Michael E. Mann’s research group based at The University of Pennsylvania in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. We are engaged in research and scholarship on climate variability and extremes, paleoclimate, tropical cyclones, and climate education and policy. Information about research highlights, published articles, currently funded projects for graduate students, frequently used data and tools, and members of the research group can be found on this site. For more about Dr. Mann’s background, books, commentary, public appearances, and his blog, please go to his personal site.
News
2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Prediction
Dr. Michael E. Mann and Shannon Christiansen at the University of Pennsylvania, and Penn State ESSC alumnus, Dr. Michael Kozar, have released their seasonal prediction for the 2024 North Atlantic hurricane season. This year’s prediction yields the highest storm count to date and highlights the impacts of rising sea surface temperatures and changes in ENSO states.
Pacific Northwest 2021 Heat Dome =
Dr. Xueke Li, Mann Research Group post doctoral researcher, and Dr. Michael E. Mann lead collaborators in a new article published in PNAS showing the precursor role that atmospheric resonance has in the 2021 Pacific Northwest “Heat Dome” event. The study found that interactions between planetary-scale atmospheric waves and local soil moisture conditions played a role in the unprecedented extreme.
>>Read the article here
>>Read the PIK Press Release
For more coverage and up to date discourse regarding the article of please see our Twitter page @MannResearch
Launch of the Penn Center for Science, Sustainability and the Media Student Blog Post
Undergraduate student, Alice Andrews, has been working with the Mann Research Group in collaboration with The Academy of Natural Sciences at Drexel University to study giant clams as a paleoclimate proxy.
Image credited to Alexandra C., National Geographic
Compound Drought and Heatwave Events
Dr. Michael E. Mann and collaborators lead by Kumar P. Tripathy investigated the risk of compound drought and heatwave events (CDHW) under “worse-case” climate change scenarios. In this new study, they found the effects of climate change increases the intensity, duration and frequency of CDHW events, and comment on the threat extreme heat has on socioeconomic factors.
>>Read the study (Journal Web Version)
>>Read the study (PDF)
>>Read the press release
2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Prediction
Dr. Michael E. Mann and Shannon Christiansen at the University of Pennsylvania and Penn State ESSC alumnus Dr. Michael Kozar have released their seasonal prediction for the 2023 North Atlantic hurricane season. The prediction is for another above-normal season.
>>Read the prediction write-up
>>View 2023 predictions
Another Year of Record Heat for the Oceans
Lijing Cheng, and numerous collaborators including Dr. Michael E Mann, have once again extended previous research to conclude that the world’s oceans were a record warm in 2022, despite the presence of La Niña conditions, for another consecutive year.
>>Read the study (Journal Web Version)
>>Read the study (PDF version)
>>Read the Press Release
Read news coverage of the study:
>>The Guardian
>>Inside Climate News
>>Popular Science
>>Axios
>>Raw Story
>>Independent
>>CNN
New Spring 2023 Course
This spring, Professor Michael E. Mann will be teaching an intro level course on “Global Climate Change”. Global Climate Change (EESC 2300) will introduce natural and anthropogenic processes that impact the global climate, address current climate observations, and highlight estimates of future climate projections. Students will become familiar with the current state of understanding human-caused climate change including the science, impacts, and sociopolitical dimensions of the climate crisis. Check out the Courses tab for more information.
Register Now!
>>View Course Flyer
>>View UPenn EESC Course Catalog
Past and Future Ocean Warming
Lijing Cheng and collaborators, including Dr. Michael E. Mann, outline the drivers and consequences of past and future ocean warming though monitoring ocean measurements and analyzing model simulations.
>>Read the study (Web version on journal site)
>>Read the study (PDF version)
>>Read the Chinese Academy of Sciences press release
Beyond the Hockey Stick: Climate Lessons from the Common Era
The Department of Earth and Environmental Science hosted a Penn Climate Week event featuring Dr. Michael E. Mann where he discussed the science behind the iconic “Hockey Stick” curve, and the lessons we can learn from studying paleoclimate records and climate model simulations of the common era.
More information on the event here>>
More information on Climate Week at Penn here>>
Read the publications discussed in the lecture:
>>Beyond the Hockey Stick: Climate Lessons from the Common Era (Mann, 2021)
>>Multidecadal Climate Oscillations During the Past Millennium Driven by Volcanic Forcing (Mann et al., 2021)
>>Absence of Internal Multidecadal and Interdecadal Oscillations in Climate Model Simulations (Mann et al., 2020)
>>Oscillatory Spatiotemporal Signal Detection in Climate Studies: A Multiple-Taper Spectral Domain Approach (Mann and Park, 1999)
>>A Model El Niño-Southern Oscillation (Zebiak and Cane, 1987)
Irreversible declines in freshwater storage projected in parts of Asia by 2060
Dr. Michael E. Mann and collaborators have found that climate change threatens terrestrial freshwater storage over the Tibetan plateau.
>>Read the study (Web version on journal Web site)
>>Read the study (PDF version)
>>Read the research briefing (Web version on journal Web site)
>>Read the Penn State press release
2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season outlook released
ESSC scientists Michael E. Mann and Daniel J. Brouillette and ESSC alumnus Michael Kozar have released their seasonal prediction for the 2022 North Atlantic hurricane season. The prediction is for another above-normal season.
>>Read the prediction write-up
Study shows that ITCZ responses to external forcing are region-specific
Byron Steinman, and collaborators including Dr. Mann, analyzed paleoclimate records of precipitation change in the neotropics and climate model simulations that span the preindustrial last millennium to assess ITCZ behavior on multicentury timescales. They demonstrate that the ITCZ shifted southward during the Little Ice Age in the Atlantic basin in response to relative cooling of the Northern Hemisphere driven by volcanic forcing, which contrasts with studies suggesting that changes in ITCZ width and/or strength, rather than a change in mean position, occurred during the Little Ice Age.
>>Read the study (Web version on the journal Web site)
>>Read the study (printable version on the Mann Web site)
>>Access supplementary materials for this study
>>Read the UMD press release about the study
Another record: Ocean warming continues through 2021 despite La Niña conditions
Lijing Cheng, and numerous collaborators including Dr. Michael E. Mann, have extended previous research to conclude that the world’s oceans were again record warm in 2021, for the sixth consecutive year, despite the presence of La Niña conditions.
>>Read the study (Web version on the journal Web site)
>>Read the study (printable version on the Mann Web site)
>>Read the press release from SciTechDaily
>>View a supplementary video produced by the authors
Read news coverage of the study:
Washington Post>>
The Guardian>>
CNN>>
AP>>
Axios>>
Strait Times>>
ScienceAlert>>
CTV News (Canada)>>
Le Monde>>
Heat stress in U.S. may double by the end of the century
Dr. Michael E. Mann and collaborators Sourav Mukherjee (lead author), Ashok Kumar Mishra, and Colin Raymond published a study that shows that areas of the United States with increasing populations will likely experience even higher increases in heat stress.
>>Read the study
>>Read the AGU press release
>>Read more from NSF
Apparent Atlantic warming cycle likely an artifact of climate forcing
ESSC scientists Dr. Michael E. Mann and Daniel J. Brouillette and alumni scientists Dr. Byron Steinman and Sonya Miller have published a study that further confirms that the so-called Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation is indistinguishable from the background noise of internal climate variability and is an artifact of climate forcing and that additionally finds that it tracks closely with volcanic forcing over the past millennium.
